Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has doubled the monetary base, primarily through excess reserves on deposit with the Federal Reserve. Think of the Federal Reserve System as a bank for banks. When a bank has extra dollars, they can deposit them in the FRS, and earn interest on those dollars, much like you or I would by depositing extra dollars in a savings account.
What you may find interesting is that the "extra dollars" or excess reserves, were created out of thin air. Yes, someone at the Federal Reserve typed a combination of buttons on a computer keyboard that resulted in "deposits" made at the Federal Reserve. Here are some graphs to help you understand how easy, and dramatic, the rise in the monetary base has been:
click on chart for larger view
The first graph shows an increase of almost $900 billion in the excess reserves on deposit with the Federal Reserve System.
click on chart for larger view
The second graph shows where the extra $900 billion has been added to the overall monetary base, unadjusted. (Adjusted means the data has been adjusted to hide or obfuscate problems and otherwise benefit political interests)
The excess reserves are dollars that are on deposit, and not lent out by the banks, and therefore not circulating. In other words, they are dollars not being spent.
The banks earn interest on these reserves, currently about .013%- less than a quarter of 1%. Ask yourself- why would banks want to earn .013% on their savings rather than lend it out at a rate of 7%, or 3%, or even 1%?
Another question to ask is- what happens when banks do decide to lend from their reserves? First, it will increase the amount of dollars in circulation, which inevitably leads to inflation. Given the large and rapid increase in dollars, it is believable that hyper-inflation would happen at some point. (There are many countervailing trends in play that would postpone or even prevent this, and Robert Wenzel at EconomicPolicyJournal does a most excellent job of following and relaying these)
To fight inflation, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to slow down the circulation of money- people and businesses are more likely to borrow money at 2% interest than 12% interest. And to fight rampant inflation, the Fed will really raise interest rates- reference the spike in mortgage interest rates around 1980. Given the extraordinary circumstances we are in today concerning the monetary base, it is conceivable that mortgage interest rates could go as high or higher than they did in the 1980's.
To further reinforce the data, reference a speech given by Kevin Warsh, a Governor and Board Member of the Federal Reserve System, in which he states that:
"...when the decision is made to remove policy accommodation further, prudent risk management may prescribe that it be accomplished with greater swiftness than is modern central bank custom."
Understand that "policy accommodation" refers to helping political interests achieve their goals by doing what the FRS does best- print dollars. Mr. Warsh admits that this decision at some point will be "removed", and that the ensuing "risk management" will occur with "greater swiftness than is modern... custom". Basically, he is admitting that the FRS will move faster to raise rates- or erase dollars- than has ever been done before.
Therefore, based on this information, it would be wise to consider refinancing your current mortgage to a fixed, low-rate mortgage loan, if you haven't already. And in an inflationary environment, it will be much easier to pay off that mortgage, especially if you can keep your income growing steady with inflation. Practically speaking, gold and silver are best at this. Other currencies can, to the degree that they are not backed by the US Dollar.
What you may find interesting is that the "extra dollars" or excess reserves, were created out of thin air. Yes, someone at the Federal Reserve typed a combination of buttons on a computer keyboard that resulted in "deposits" made at the Federal Reserve. Here are some graphs to help you understand how easy, and dramatic, the rise in the monetary base has been:
click on chart for larger viewThe first graph shows an increase of almost $900 billion in the excess reserves on deposit with the Federal Reserve System.
click on chart for larger viewThe second graph shows where the extra $900 billion has been added to the overall monetary base, unadjusted. (Adjusted means the data has been adjusted to hide or obfuscate problems and otherwise benefit political interests)
The excess reserves are dollars that are on deposit, and not lent out by the banks, and therefore not circulating. In other words, they are dollars not being spent.
The banks earn interest on these reserves, currently about .013%- less than a quarter of 1%. Ask yourself- why would banks want to earn .013% on their savings rather than lend it out at a rate of 7%, or 3%, or even 1%?
Another question to ask is- what happens when banks do decide to lend from their reserves? First, it will increase the amount of dollars in circulation, which inevitably leads to inflation. Given the large and rapid increase in dollars, it is believable that hyper-inflation would happen at some point. (There are many countervailing trends in play that would postpone or even prevent this, and Robert Wenzel at EconomicPolicyJournal does a most excellent job of following and relaying these)
To fight inflation, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to slow down the circulation of money- people and businesses are more likely to borrow money at 2% interest than 12% interest. And to fight rampant inflation, the Fed will really raise interest rates- reference the spike in mortgage interest rates around 1980. Given the extraordinary circumstances we are in today concerning the monetary base, it is conceivable that mortgage interest rates could go as high or higher than they did in the 1980's.
To further reinforce the data, reference a speech given by Kevin Warsh, a Governor and Board Member of the Federal Reserve System, in which he states that:
"...when the decision is made to remove policy accommodation further, prudent risk management may prescribe that it be accomplished with greater swiftness than is modern central bank custom."
Understand that "policy accommodation" refers to helping political interests achieve their goals by doing what the FRS does best- print dollars. Mr. Warsh admits that this decision at some point will be "removed", and that the ensuing "risk management" will occur with "greater swiftness than is modern... custom". Basically, he is admitting that the FRS will move faster to raise rates- or erase dollars- than has ever been done before.
Therefore, based on this information, it would be wise to consider refinancing your current mortgage to a fixed, low-rate mortgage loan, if you haven't already. And in an inflationary environment, it will be much easier to pay off that mortgage, especially if you can keep your income growing steady with inflation. Practically speaking, gold and silver are best at this. Other currencies can, to the degree that they are not backed by the US Dollar.
No comments:
Post a Comment